Global consumer broadband connections will grow from 323 million connections in 2007 to 499 million in 2012, according to Gartner. Worldwide consumer broadband connections penetrated 18 percent of households in 2007, and by 2012, broadband connection will reach 25 percent.

Five countries surpassed 60 percent broadband penetration in 2007, and 17 more are on track to do the same by 2012. The five countries above 60 percent broadband penetration are Canada (65%), Netherlands (74%), Switzerland (69%), South Korea (93%), and Hong Kong (76%).

The United States had 54 percent broadband penetration in 2007 and is on track to reach 77 percent by 2012. The United Kingdom had 58 percent in 2007 and is set to hit 74 percent in 2012.

“Depending on the specific market conditions, availability of Internet-enabled devices and the continued impact of broadband on consumer lifestyles, we expect some markets will have a broadband ceiling at 80 percent penetration or greater,” said Amanda Sabia, principal research analyst at Gartner.

The higher penetration rates in South Korea, Hong Kong and the Netherlands are examples of what can be achieved under the right circumstances. The small, denser countries or countries with government funded broadband infrastructure, have an advantage. Because of this, by 2012, these countries will be able to hold onto to their lead in broadband penetration rates.

“Broadband penetration will increase, especially in the geographically larger markets, as current broadband providers continue to deploy their services, as newer technologies (wireless broadband, such as WiMAX) attract subscribers, and as users experience firsthand how speed enhances their Internet sessions,” Ms. Sabia said.

The top three markets of South Korea, the Netherlands and Hong Kong are already heavily penetrated so the change in penetration rates is small compared with markets in the United States, Japan, Czech Republic, New Zealand and Australia. These markets can expect an increase of broadband penetration rates by more than 20 percentage points.

“Consumers in heavily penetrated markets are already addicted to broadband, thus the future in these markets is less concerned with increasing subscriber numbers, and more with addressing what new applications and/or content will be transmitted over this pipe,” Ms. Sabia said.

“Newer ventures in these markets are primarily entertainment (such as Internet video content and games), Internet Protocol television (IPTV) and home networking, which will bring these devices and services into one integrated system within the home.”